How Insurgencies End

From the lessons of the Vietnam War to the recent downfall of the Tamil Tigers in Southeast Asia, conflicts between insurgencies and governments tend to follow certain patterns as they arc toward their endings, according to a new RAND Corporation study, entitled "How Insurgencies End." The study provides a planning framework for both policymakers and strategists to help design counterinsurgency campaigns and mitigate the kind of false expectations that undermined the arc of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"Counterinsurgency operations will continue to play a large role in today's military strategy, so it is critical to understand how and perhaps more importantly, why, insurgencies end," said Ben Connable, the study's lead author and an intelligence policy analyst with RAND, a nonprofit research organization. Researchers analyzed 89 insurgency cases and concluded it is possible to shape insurgency endings with sufficient forethought, strategic flexibility and sustained willpower.

However, because numerous variables help define insurgencies – local culture, terrain, economy, type of government – the study notes there is no one-size-fits-all template for dealing with insurgencies.

The RAND study found:

• Modern insurgencies last approximately 10 years and the government's chances of winning increase slightly over time.
• Withdrawal of state sponsorship cripples an insurgency and typically leads to its defeat, while inconsistent or impartial support to either side generally presages defeat.
• Pseudo-democracies do not often succeed against insurgencies and are rarely successful in fully democratizing.

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Possible Problems with Alternative Remittance Systems: Australian Institute of Criminology

The events of 11 September 2001 have heightened interest in ensuring that all sectors of the financial system are not misused either by criminal or terrorist groups. In addition to conventional banks, money and value can be transferred by alternative remittance providers who have, until recently, not been closely regulated. Regulators are concerned that the informal nature of these businesses may lead to their use by terrorist groups and other criminals. This brief considers the characteristics of alternative remittance businesses, the risks they pose and some of the current responses to these risks.

This report is one of three in a suite on this issue by the AIC:

• Money laundering and terrorism financing risks posed by alternative remittance in Australia
• Alternative remittance systems in Australia: Perceptions of users and providers
• Risks of money laundering and the financing of terrorism arising from alternative remittance systems

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NYPD Intelligence making FBI blue

The body of the last Pakistani terrorist was hardly cold in November 2008 when representatives of the New York Police Department’s intelligence unit showed up in Mumbai. “We’re from the U.S. government,” they told Indian security officials, according to a senior former U.S. intelligence official who now does private business in the country. The Indians were left confused by who exactly was representing American intelligence in Mumbai, he said. Was it the CIA, FBI, or these men who said they were from “the U.S. government”?

The incident could not be independently verified, although NYPD chief Raymond W. Kelly was not shy about telling a congressional panel later that “within hours of the end of the attacks, the NYPD notified the Indian government that we would be sending personnel there. By December 5," he added, "our Intelligence Division had produced an analysis, which we shared with the FBI.” The FBI was not all that grateful, according to several former bureau and CIA sources. Indeed, tension between the FBI and the NYPD’s intelligence division has only deepened since then, according to a lacerating analysis by a veteran New York crime reporter.

• "A Failure to Communicate", NYPD Confidential, 4/19/10.
  

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Small terror groups are key challenge

Small and disparate groups of terrorists and individuals radicalized by militants over the Internet will be major challenges for the U.S. intelligence community in coming years, the nation's top intelligence adviser said Wednesday. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair said he is confident U.S. spy agencies can detect and prevent a Sept. 11-style attack. But stopping smaller, more piecemeal attacks will be harder, he said.

"We've got to raise our game," Blair told reporters at the DNI headquarters in northern Virginia. Radicalization is becoming a bigger problem, he said, including efforts aimed at Americans attracted to extremist ideologies through the Internet. Blair's comments come as the intelligence community and other government agencies are still contending with criticism in the wake of the Christmas Day airliner attack. The incident is seen as a strong indicator of the kind of small, quickly designed plots that could pose trouble in the future.

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Child prostitution marks new low for mafia

The mafia has traditionally maintained respect for women and children, but allegations the Gambino crime family was involved in underage prostitution may mean the last vestiges of mob reverence are gone, authorities said. To some observers, seeing a woman among the defendants in a federal indictment, unsealed Tuesday, was just as shocking as charges the syndicate was peddling teens to customers in New Jersey and three New York boroughs.

Suzanne Porcelli, 43, was the only female among 14 reputed Gambino crime family members and associates indicted on charges including racketeering, murder, sex trafficking of a minor, extortion and drug trafficking. Thirteen defendants, including Porcelli, entered not guilty pleas Tuesday, according to the U.S. attorney's office, and they are expected to appear Wednesday before a federal judge who has been appointed to the case.

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Indonesia: Jihadi Surprise in Aceh

The International Crisis Group recently published a new report on a surprise change in the Islamic extremist environment in Indonesia. It says:

The discovery in late February 2010 of a jihadi training camp in Aceh came as a surprise in three ways. It revealed a major mutation in Indonesian jihadi ranks: a new coalition had emerged that rejected both Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the best-known such organisation in the region, and the more violent splinter group led until his death in September 2009 by Noordin Top. It had chosen Aceh as a base, despite the antipathy of Acehnese to radical Islam. And it was led by Dulmatin, one of South East Asia’s most wanted terrorists, whom officials in both Indonesia and the Philippines believed was in Mindanao.

By mid-April police had arrested 48 coalition members, killed eight, including Dulmatin, and were looking for about fifteen others. The group’s existence and the government response show that despite enormous gains made in counter-terrorism efforts since the first Bali bombs in 2002, intelligence remains weak; monitoring of prisons and ex-prisoners remains a problem; police handling of “active shooters” needs improvement; and corruption continues to be a major lubricant for terrorist activities in Indonesia.

To read the full report, please go to International Crisis Group, Asia Report N°189, Indonesia: Jihadi Surprise in Aceh.

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6 charged with left-wing terrorism in Greece

A Greek prosecutor on Monday charged six people with membership in the country's most active far-left terrorist group, which has claimed a string of bombings and a rocket attack on the U.S. embassy in Athens. The five men and one woman, aged between 30 and 41, were also charged with multiple counts of attempted homicide, causing explosions, and arms offenses linked with the Revolutionary Struggle organization. Each faces a maximum 25-year sentence if found guilty on the main charges.

The suspects were arrested in and around Athens Saturday. Police said they found Revolutionary Struggle proclamations and plans for future attacks in one of the detainees' homes, but have located no weapons or explosives. Revolutionary Struggle first appeared in 2003, a year after authorities eradicated Greece's deadliest left-wing group, November 17, and has bombed banks, government buildings and the Athens Stock Exchange, in three cases causing minor injuries to bystanders. Its most spectacular hit was the 2007 rocket-propelled grenade attack on the heavily guarded U.S. Embassy, which caused minor damage but no injuries.

The U.S. government subsequently offered a $1 million reward for information leading to the capture of Revolutionary Struggle members. The group also shot and severely wounded a riot policeman last year. That attack came during a spike in anarchist and far-left violence that followed the fatal police shooting of an Athens teenager in December 2008 and days of rioting in Greek cities. The six suspects arrived at the main Athens court complex escorted by anti-terrorist police, and were whisked into the prosecutor's office. When they exited, dozens of people who had gathered to chant slogans in support of the detainees threw plastic bottles and scuffled with police, who responded with pepper spray. Two people were arrested for the disturbance, which followed anarchist groups' calls for a show of solidarity.

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Al Qaeda's two top Iraq leaders killed in raid

Al Qaeda's top two leaders in Iraq have been killed, officials said Monday, in a strike the United States called a "potentially devastating blow" but whose impact analysts said may be limited. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said al Qaeda's Iraq leader, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the purported head of its local affiliate, the Islamic State of Iraq, were found dead in a hole in the ground inside a house after it was surrounded and stormed by troops. The deaths could be a major setback to the stubborn insurgency at a time when Iraq is emerging from the sectarian slaughter unleashed after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion but still struggling to end suicide bombings and other attacks.

"Their deaths are potentially devastating blows to al Qaeda Iraq," U.S. Vice President Joe Biden told reporters in Washington, adding the operation "demonstrates the improved security strength and capacity of Iraqi security forces." He said it was an operation led by Iraqi security forces with the support of U.S. troops, one of whom was killed. "The Iraqis have taken the lead in securing Iraq and its citizens by taking out both of these individuals," he said. The U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno, called the deaths "potentially the most significant blow to al Qaeda in Iraq since the beginning of the insurgency."

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ICE Busts Massive Human Smuggling Ring That Stretches Length of U.S.

More than 800 law enforcement agents swooped down on a massive human smuggling ring in Arizona early Thursday morning, delivering a "stunning blow" to a criminal network that helped shuttled illegal immigrants all around the country. Thursday's strike is the largest coordinated action ever led by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which partnered with eight other federal, state and local agencies to arrest 47 suspects in Phoenix, Tucson, Nogales and Rio Rico, Arizona. "Alien smugglers are a scourge," ICE Assistant Secretary John Morton said. "They violate our borders ... [and] profit at our expense by knowingly breaking our laws, day in and day out. Today we turned the tables on the smugglers."

ICE agents targeted shuttle van services they believe have ferried thousands of illegal immigrants from southern Arizona to Phoenix, providing passengers fake $30 ride receipts and even coaching them on how to answer law enforcement agents if the buses were stopped at immigration checkpoints along the highway. From there the illegal immigrants were left at drop-houses or brought to shuttle services that offer rides to destinations all over the West Coast. ICE alleges that the businesses are part of a larger smuggling operation that carries illegal immigrants over the border from Mexico "to the far corners of the United States" — places as far-flung as New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.

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Dirty bomb attack 'pretty likely' despite nuclear deal

A landmark summit of world leaders in Washington has agreed to secure vulnerable nuclear materials around the globe within four years. The pledge came in a final communique issued after summit host US president Barack Obama warned that nuclear material the "size of an apple" would be enough to kill thousands of people if it fell into the hands of terrorists. Tilman Ruff, Associate Professor at Melbourne University and chair of the International Campaign to Demolish Nuclear Weapons, says the possibility of terrorists getting hold of radioactive material and attaching it to a conventional explosive is highly likely. "Detonating it in a major city is the simplest and most likely form of nuclear terrorism. I think ... it's pretty likely that somewhere we'll see such an episode."

"These materials are still unfortunately widely available in thousands of locations. [But] the possibility of terrorists building a nuclear weapon will no doubt be diminished by the kind of work that this summit has accelerated." Professor Ruff says the damage such an attack could cause would be severe. "It wouldn't be a nuclear explosion, so it might kill immediately hundreds or thousands of people in a crowded city, rather than tens or hundreds of thousands even a relatively small nuclear weapon would," he said. "But it would contaminate potentially several square kilometres, for example, of a major city centre.

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Al-Qaida ‘Scammed’ in Its Quest for Nukes?

John Brennan, President Barack Obama’s adviser on Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, yesterday made an interesting claim: He said al-Qaida has been “scammed” in its efforts to obtain the material for building a nuclear device. “There have been numerous reports over the years, over the past eight or nine years, about attempts throughout the world to obtain various types of purported material that is nuclear related,” he said. “We know that al-Qaida has been involved in a number of these efforts to acquire it. Fortunately, I think they’ve been scammed a number of times, but we know that they continued to pursue that.”

How, exactly, do you run a nuclear scam? Brennan hinted that it was a lucrative line of business for criminal groups in the former Soviet Union. “Sometimes they’re criminal gangs that have information that some material had come out from the, let’s say, the area of the former Soviet Union or some stockpiles and they will try to provide that material to other groups to sell,” he said. “As I said, a lot of it is scam, you know, red mercury, whatever else.

• "Nuclear summit told how Georgia 'foiled plot to sell weapons-grade uranium'", The Guardian, 4/14/10.
  
• "Borderline detection: Georgia’s borders are guarded by some of the best radiation detectors available — so why are nuclear smugglers still slipping through?", Nature Magazine, 3/4/10.
• "Combating Nuclear Smuggling", US Government Accountability Office, 3/1/06.
  

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Saudi Arabian government fears Al-Qaeda disguises

Saudi Arabia fears members of Al-Qaeda may disguise themselves as journalists and use camera equipment to hide bombs in order to target government dignitaries and state guests. According to the English language daily, Asharq Al-Awsat, government warnings are expected to lead to increased security procedures and rigorous inspection of journalists covering official events. In March Saudi Arabia announced that more than 100 people had been arrested in connection with an alleged Al-Qaeda suicide plot to blow up oil installations. Saudi interior ministry spokesman Major General Mansour al-Turki stressed the need for media representatives to carry credentials identifying them as journalists while on duty.

Media sources monitoring Al-Qaeda believe it may use the media in order to achieve its objectives. Several journalists from the Arab daily, al-Watan, are being protected by police since their editorial office came under fire by presumed Islamic militants. Saudi Arabia said in March it had foiled several planned attacks on oil installations with the arrest of 113 suspected Al-Qaeda militants.

Many of the suspects had come to Saudi Arabia on visas to visit holy sites or by sneaking across its borders, but wanted to join and organise attacks, the interior ministry said at the time. Saudi Arabia has taken a strong stance in pursuing militants since a series of attacks inside the country that began in May 2003. The country is the birthplace of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and home to 15 of the hijackers who targeted the United States on 11 September 2001.

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Identity thieves filed for $4M in tax refunds using names of living and dead.

A group of sophisticated identity thieves managed to steal millions of dollars by filing bogus tax returns using the names and Social Security numbers of other people, many of them deceased, according to a 74-count indictment unsealed in Arizona Thursday. The thieves operated their scheme for at least three years from January 2005 to April 2008, allegedly filing more than 1,900 fraudulent tax returns involving about $4 million in refunds directed to more than 170 bank accounts. The conspirators used numerous fake IDs to open internet and phone accounts, and also used more than 175 different IP addresses around the United States to file the fake returns, which were often filed in bulk as if through an automated process.

The IRS allows taxpayers to file their returns electronically and obtain their refunds through direct deposit to a bank account or to a pre-paid debit card account, which lets them withdraw the funds from an ATM. The scam took advantage of the IRS’ quick turnaround in processing refunds for electronically filed returns. The IRS typically processes a refund request without verifying the taxpayer’s information — such as whether the taxpayer is alive — or confirming that the taxpayer is legitimately owed money. The crooks just needed names and Social Security numbers of victims, which they acquired from various sources, and a company’s name and tax-ID number to list as an employer.

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Georgia foils attempt to sell weapons-grade uranium

This scary scenario is taken from Julian Borger's Global Security Blog.

"The Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has told fellow leaders at the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington that his government has thwarted an attempt to sell highly-enriched uranium on the black market last month. Georgian sources said the HEU was intercepted in a sting operation carried out by the Tbilisi authorities without international assistance. They said the uranium was over 70% enriched. The exact analysis is expected in a few days, but it appears to have been pure enough to use in a crude nuclear weapon."

To read the full post, please click here.

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Real IRA admits Northern Ireland MI5 base car bomb

The Real IRA has admitted it was behind a car bomb which exploded outside the army base which houses MI5's Northern Ireland headquarters. The blast came on the day that David Ford was elected as NI's Justice Minister, the first local politician to hold the job in 38 years. It happened at about 0020 BST outside Palace Barracks, in Holywood, County Down. Police said no warning was given. The bomb went off as the surrounding area was being evacuated. An elderly man walking near the barracks at the time was treated for minor injuries.

The bomb was placed in a taxi, which had been hijacked in the Ligoniel area of north Belfast, about seven miles from Holywood. The driver was held hostage by three men for about two hours before being told to drive his taxi to the barracks.The vehicle was abandoned at the base just before midnight prompting police and security staff to evacuate the area. The bomb exploded about 20 minutes later as the evacuation was still taking place. There were two explosions - first the bomb and then the petrol tank, destroying the car and damaging other property. Mr Ford, the new justice minister, said the bombing was a cynical attempt to intimidate politicians ahead of Monday's vote.

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Homeland Security Wants Cellphones to Sniff for Bio Agents

Your cellphone can already tell you where to find the nearest Starbucks or the most convenient subway station. But it might soon be smart enough to alert you to a toxic threat during your morning commute or coffee break, thanks to a new plan from the Department of Homeland Security. The last time we heard about cellphones and terrorism, it was an appeal from the NYPD to shut off cell communication during an attack. Now, Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate want to use cellphones to detect the very threats that might be coordinated using wireless chit-chat.

Their new program, called Cell-All, would embed inexpensive, chemical-sniffing microchips into cellular telephones. If a dangerous level of air-based toxin is detected, the phone would issue a warning ring (or vibration) to alert the owner and send a message to a centralized military monitoring station. And, since the vast majority of Americans carry cellphones wherever they go, the program would use aggregated reports of toxin detection within a small area. If hundreds of cellphones in one location start flooding the alert system, the military knows they’ve got a serious threat to contend with. Detection, transmission and analysis would take around 60 seconds, according to a press release from the Directorate.

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Al Jazeera English - americas - Drug wars haunt Colombian city

Al Jazeera - Americas - Drug wars haunt Colombian city (VIDEO)

The Colombian city of Medellin has seen a resurgence of deadly violence that has brought back memories of its notorious drug kingpin, Pablo Escobar. Since the beginning of last year, more than a thousand people have been killed in confrontations between street gangs working for rival drug cartels. Sadly, most of the victims fit the same profile - young men between the ages of 18 and 26. From Medellin, Al Jazeera's Teresa Bo has this report.

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Car bomb explodes at Ulster army barrack

A car bomb exploded early this morning on the outskirts of Belfast, timed to coincide with the transfer of power as the Stormont parliament took over judicial and policing powers at midnight. Northern Ireland now has its first justice minister in nearly four decades. A spokesman for the Police Service of Northern Ireland said: "A device has exploded in a vehicle at the rear of Palace Barracks, Holywood. The explosion occurred at approximately 12.24am. The investigation in ongoing, and there are no further details at this stage." It was reported that one person was injured in the blast. Police sources said the bomb was taken to the barracks in a hijacked taxi after the cab driver's family was held hostage.

It is understood that homes around the army base, north east of Belfast, were being evacuated as the bomb went off, and that some families are staying overnight in a nearby community centre. Alliance Party deputy leader Naomi Long said: "I would utterly condemn any such attack and am sure that the vast majority of people from across our community are sickened by the actions of people who seem intent on dragging Northern Ireland back into the past. "It is vital that all local politicians unite to condemn this attack and redouble our efforts to create stable political structures and a peaceful society.

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Russia's forever war in the Caucasus

This post is taken from Petger Hodge's, The Strategist, which follows on very nicely from my previous post concerning Russian train attacks spreading to western countries. The post starts...

Luke Harding on the brutal conflict between Russia and Muslim separatists in the North Caucasus: "The misfortune of the four garlic pickers was to have unwittingly strayed into a 'counter-insurgency operation' conducted by Russian forces in the densely wooded border between Chechnya and Ingushetia. The soldiers, apparently looking for militant rebels who are waging their own violent campaign against the Russian state, came across the unarmed group, brutally killing them amid the picturesque massif of low hills." An insightful analysis of this "forever war".

To visit The Strategist Blog, click here.

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New Nuclear Threat Tops Summit's Agenda

President Obama spent last week at home and in Prague concentrating on nuclear strategy, and nearly 50 world leaders will gather in Washington this week for a nuclear summit. The focus of these events shows that the global nuclear threat has shifted — from fears of an attack by a nuclear-armed superpower, to concerns about a nuclear-armed terrorist. In Prague on Thursday, Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed an arms reduction treaty in an effort to resolve a problem that emerged in the last century. "The United States and Russia are prepared to once again take leadership in moving in the direction of reducing reliance on nuclear weapons," Obama said.

"I think it is much more difficult to deal with a nuclear terrorist than with a nuclear-armed state," says Frank Miller, who oversaw U.S. nuclear weapons policy at the Pentagon. The knowledge that everyone would lose in traditional nuclear war has historically prevented countries from firing on each other, Miller says. That calculus doesn't apply with suicide bombers. "At the very minimum, they're probably not living in their own country. They're living on somebody else's soil. And how are you going to attack that host country's soil with nuclear weapons? It doesn't compute."

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Russian-style train bombings could happen in the West

Since 2007, Russia has been subjected to a number of terrorist bombing attacks on railroad lines and trains designed to both kill Russians and spread fear among the population. Most of these attacks have taken place in and near to the capital city, Moscow or St. Petersburg, the second largest city. Specific attacks against targets in Russia have been:

• 3/29/10. Two female suicide bombers attacked two trains on the Moscow metro on 29 March 2010 by detonating improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that were worn on their bodies. Initial reporting indicated that 38 people may have been killed and 102 injured.3 Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov has claimed responsibility for the attack.
• 11/27/09. Chechen extremists attacked the high-speed Russian luxury train, Nevsky Express, by detonating an improvised explosive device (IED) placed under the tracks on a rural segment of the line between Moscow and St. Petersburg.16 hours later a secondary device exploded. The Caucasian Mujahedeen later claimed responsibility for the blast.
• 8/13/07. The Nevsky Express was blown up by a homemade bomb in the Novgorod area en-route from Moscow to St. Petersburg. Four pounds of explosives derailed the train, wiping out 800 meters of track. Sixty people were reported injured, about half-dozen in critical condition.

Several lessons are there to be learned from the Russian attacks. Analysis of these events has shown that:

• The Improvised Explosive Device still remains the weapon of choice and is very effective. IEDs are easy to assemble and can be made from everyday materials.
• Each attack has been claimed by Islamic extremist/terror group from the North Caucasus Region. Similar groups could be operating in western countries, such as the United States, Australia, Canada, Germany and France.
• With terrorists across the world copying successful tactics from one location to another, a railroad attack by terrorists in any western country, especially those that have committed resources to combating global terrorism, is a possibility that cannot be ignored.
• Many Western countries have large, open, and sparsely populated regions, similar to Russia; these areas would seem ideal for rural attacks.
• City attacks, such as those that took place in Madrid and London, show that any platform or station can be a target; however, a location is more likely to be attacked if there are clusters of targets in the one area. For example, the suicide bombing at the Lubyanka station was symbolic as it was very close to the headquarters of the Federal Security Service, formerly the KGB. These locations then, need the closest security.
• Suicide attacks are difficult to detect, especially when women are used as the attackers, however close observation of their movements and actions can give them away if interrupted early enough. Signs should be taken seriously and immediate action taken to determine the nature of any possible threat.

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Drug gang hangs two from bridge near Mexico City

The two men were found stripped to the waist and hung by the neck from the bridge near a shopping mall early Friday morning in Cuernavaca, said the attorney general's office for Morelos state, which includes the city. Suspected drug hitmen hung the bodies of two men off a major bridge on Friday in a weekend get-away near Mexico City in the latest brazen act of drug violence near the capital. Mexican media reported the hitmen riddled the bodies with bullets before fleeing the scene.

Drug violence is raging across Mexico and almost 20,000 people have died in the fight among cartels and with Mexican security forces since President Felipe Calderon (pictured above) launched his army-led crackdown on drug gangs in late 2006. "Given the characteristics of this act, the killings appear to be linked to drug cartels and it is something we are seeing more of in the area," said a spokesman for the attorney general's office who declined to be named.

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Sheriff To Texas Border Town: 'Arm Yourselves'

Along the border, fears are growing that the escalating drug violence in Mexico will spill into the United States. Last month, a well-known rancher was murdered in southeastern Arizona. Authorities suspect an illegal immigrant did it. The murder prompted governors in New Mexico and Texas to send forces to the border. This week, the Mexican government sent dozens of police and soldiers to the Juarez Valley to restore order. For many on both sides of the border, the fear is very real. Last week, residents held a town-hall meeting in Fort Hancock, Texas — a sleepy agricultural town on the border, about an hour southeast of El Paso, that looks like the bleak set of No Country for Old Men. A couple hundred people crowded into the grade-school gym to hear a chilling message from Hudspeth County Sheriff Arvin West. "You farmers, I'm telling you right now, arm yourselves," he said. "As they say the old story is, it's better to be tried by 12 than carried by six. Damn it, I don't want to see six people carrying you."

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Marriott bomber's live suicide stream

A chilling new bomber's-eye video of the Marriott hotel suicide bombing that killed five people, including three Australians, in Jakarta last year has been released. The images show teenage Marriott bomber Dani Dwi Permana was streaming video back to his handler Syafudin Zuhri up to the moment he confirmed the foreigners were within range and detonated his explosives. Zuhri urges Permana on as the murderous mission begins. As Permana moves through the hotel's lobby, he uses his mobile phone to send a live video stream back to Zuhri's phone. Zuhri uses a video camera to record the images and prays for the success of the mission. "God keep watch over us and keep us close to you," he tells the doomed bomber. Zuhri and the man who allegedly planned the attack, Noordin Mohammad Top, were killed in police raids last year. But the alleged members of the support network are on trial and the prosecutors are trying to show how one was connected to the other and eventually to Zuhri, who recorded the chilling images.

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U.S. Courthouses now under threat

At a time of heightened concerns over threats to government officials, federal authorities in Spokane kept quiet about the discovery of a bomb found alongside the Thomas S. Foley U.S. Courthouse last week. They acknowledged the investigation Wednesday, however, after the latest edition of Newsweek magazine disclosed the March 28 discovery as part of an article examining increasing anti-government threats and violence spreading across the nation. U.S. Attorney Jim McDevitt defended the decision to try keeping the case under wraps. “It’s an ongoing criminal investigation,” McDevitt said. “Basically, that’s all we can say.” The device was located late in the evening on a Sunday, said Tom Rice, spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Washington. Rice wouldn’t describe the device, where it was found or whether federal agents have identified any suspects.

Meanwhile, a Kansas City man, believed to be homeless, has been charged in connection with a bomb threat at the federal courthouse there earlier this week. Manuel Garcia, 66, was charged with placing a fake bomb outside the courthouse and making a false bomb threat over the telephone. A soft cooler was found near the east entrance to the federal courthouse on Monday morning. The cooler had a note attached, threatening that there would be an explosion. The bomb squad later determined that the cooler contained two small Kansas City telephone books. While authorities were investigating, a 911 call was received at 10:01 a.m. indicating that there were three additional explosive devices in the federal courthouse. According to court documents, a supervisor recognized Garcia’s voice from an earlier investigation, and Garcia was interviewed the same day.

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Qaeda Group Threatens to Attack World Cup

The North African terror group al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has threatened to attack this summer's World Cup games in South Africa. "How amazing could the match United States vs. Britain be when broadcasted live on air at a stadium packed with spectators when the sound of an explosion rumbles through the stands, the whole stadium is turned upside down and the number of dead bodies are in their dozens and hundreds, Allah willing," reads a statement the group published in a recent issue of the Jihadi online magazine Mushtaqun Lel Jannah (Longing to Paradise). The statement also highlights recent actions by the terrorism group such as the December suicide bombing that killed seven CIA employees and a Jordanian agent at a base in Eastern Afghanistan last December and the Christmas Day bombing attempt that resulted in the arrest of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian who has been cooperating with the FBI and providing information about his contacts in Yemen and the al Qaeda affiliate that operates there.

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Sweeping injunction targets 'commuter drug dealers' in downtown L.A.

In an aggressive new tack in the city's crackdown on drug-dealing on skid row, L.A. prosecutors on Wednesday announced a criminal injunction targeting "commuter dealers" who come into downtown from other parts of town to sell their goods. The L.A. City Attorney's Office said this is the first time they have aimed an injunction at drug dealers rather than gangs. The injunction would ban 80 drug dealers from entering skid row, and would allow prosecutors to ban up to 300 additional dealers who police identify in the future.

The 80 men and women already identified are affiliated with 31 gangs and have come to a "mutual understanding" to forgo rivalries, keep the peace and share business, according to Peter Shutan, the deputy city attorney. The ban still requires a judge's OK, but it has already reignited the debate over the role of police on skid row, where distinguishing between addicts and dealers can be difficult. Critics say that some of the people included in the injunction may be addicts themselves who sell drugs to support their own habits. Skid row is the last stop for many, they say, and the bans could end up separating addicts who sometimes carry or sell drugs from the rehabilitation services they need.

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Kiwis buy bootleg kidney transplants

New Zealanders desperate for kidney transplants are using the internet to buy organs from Third World countries. A senior Auckland doctor said yesterday that he had dealt with two cases in which New Zealanders had bought kidneys and had the transplant operations in the Third World - and he knew there were others. "They are very rare, but it happens," said Associate Professor Johan Rosman, chief medical officer and renal physician for Waitemata District Health. "They come back to us and we say, 'Where have you been? You've been away for six months? 'Yeah, I've bought me an organ'. "I've seen two but there are many more, and I know that in the Netherlands and in the US it's very common practice. One of the NZ patients had a badly done transplant, and the other had a successful operation. "It's always the same thing - they say, 'We're going to buy a kidney', and all of a sudden they're gone, they don't come for dialysis any more. Then they show up and they have the kidney."

• "Worldwide Market Fuels Illegal Traffic in Organs", New York Times, 7/29/09.
• "Not Just Urban Legend", Newsweek, 1/10/09.
  
• "Kidney for cash: Organ trafficking poses new challenges", MedScape Today, 10/18/05.
  

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U.S. Approves Targeted Killing of American Cleric

The Obama administration has taken the extraordinary step of authorizing the targeted killing of an American citizen, the radical Muslim cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who is believed to have shifted from encouraging attacks on the United States to directly participating in them, intelligence and counterterrorism officials said Tuesday. Mr. Awlaki, who was born in New Mexico and spent years in the United States as an imam, is in hiding in Yemen. He has been the focus of intense scrutiny since he was linked to Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, the Army psychiatrist accused of killing 13 people at Fort Hood, Tex., in November, and then to Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian man charged with trying to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner on Dec. 25.

American counterterrorism officials say Mr. Awlaki is an operative of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the affiliate of the terror network in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. They say they believe that he has become a recruiter for the terrorist network, feeding prospects into plots aimed at the United States and at Americans abroad, the officials said. It is extremely rare, if not unprecedented, for an American to be approved for targeted killing, officials said. A former senior legal official in the administration of George W. Bush said he did not know of any American who was approved for targeted killing under the former president.

But the director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, told a House hearing in February that such a step was possible. “We take direct actions against terrorists in the intelligence community,” he said. “If we think that direct action will involve killing an American, we get specific permission to do that.” He did not name Mr. Awlaki as a target. The step taken against Mr. Awlaki, which occurred earlier this year, is a vivid illustration of his rise to prominence in the constellation of terrorist leaders. But his popularity as a cleric, whose lectures on Islamic scripture have a large following among English-speaking Muslims, means any action against him could rebound against the United States in the larger ideological campaign against Al Qaeda.

• "Anwar al-Awlaki, Times Topics, New York Times.
  
• "Interview: Anwar al-Awlaki", Al-Jazeera, 2/7/10.
• "Anwar al Awlaki: Pro Al-Qaida Ideologue with Influence in the West", NEFA Foundation, 2/5/09.

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Midwest arrests stoke memories of OKC bombing

The arrests of nine people last week in the upper Midwest no doubt sent shivers through many Oklahomans. If any state is sensitive to the threat of domestic terrorism, it should be this one. The bombing of Oklahoma City's Murrah Building on April 19, 1995, killed 168 people. It remains the country's deadliest home-grown attack. Whether the Apocalyptic Hutarees' alleged plan to attack police in April was meant to coincide with the 15th anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing may never be known, the possibility is inescapable. "It's certainly suggestive," said David Cid, the executive director of the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, formed in the wake of the Oklahoma City bombing to train law enforcement officers in counterterrorism measures.

Cid, a former FBI counterterrorism specialist, said signs of potential violence had been evident for some time. "In March 2009 we felt something would happen within a year," he said. "We missed it by about a month." Cid noted a slight increase in milita-type activity around Oklahoma in recent months, but he said it is important to draw a distinction between "those who enthusiastically oppose something and those willing to kill people. We haven't seen anything that constitutes a threat," he said. Some of Oklahoma's better-known extremists and paramilitary organizations have left the state or faded from the public consciousness.

• "Famous Trials: Oklahoma City Bombing Trial", website.
• "After Oklahoma City", NewsHour Online Special, website.
  

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Naxals butcher 74 in worst blow to Indian security forces

The deadliest ever Maoist attack on security forces left 73 CRPF personnel and a local policeman dead in the thick forests of Dantewada on Tuesday, mowed down brutally, barely able to offer a fight in a dawn ambush along a road near the remote village of Chintalnar-Tarmetla. The deadly message from the Maoists comes as a battlecry, making it amply evident that all offers of truce or talks are essentially red herrings and they see their showdown with the state as a fight to the finish. It was a ferocious response to the Centre's bid to reclaim areas that Maoists have long held unchallenged and consider their domain.

Home minister P Chidambaram admitted that "something must have gone drastically wrong...They seem to have walked into a trap". Saying, "We should not have lost so many lives", home secretary G K Pillai promised that the massacre would not go unpunished. He said the search operations had been carried out on the basis of certain specific intelligence inputs.

The attacks were understood to have been carried out by several hundred Maoists, estimates ranging from 200-300 to 800-1,000. The latest chapter in the world's largest Left-wing insurgency unfolded early on Tuesday, between 6am and 7am, when 81 security personnel, including a local constable, were returning to their base in Chintalnar after an operation that spanned two nights and three days. It was a search-and-engage operation, aimed at challenging Maoists and establishing civilian control over red zones.

• "India's Maoist rebel attack sparks anger", Christian Science Monitor, 4/7/10.
  
• "India Steps Up Its Fight Against Naxalites", Time, 11/20/09.
  
• "India's Naxalites: A spectre haunting India", The Economist, 8/17/06.
• "Andhra Pradesh / Naxalite", Global Security, 8/15/06.
  

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Attack On U.S. Consulate In Pakistan Kills 3

Islamist militants attacked a U.S. consulate in northwest Pakistan with car bombs and grenades Monday, killing three people, hours after 41 people died in a suicide attack on a political rally elsewhere in the region. The assaults illustrated the resilience of militants in the country despite intense army operations and U.S. missile strikes in their northwestern havens near Afghanistan. The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad said the militants attempted to enter the building and fired grenades and other weapons. It said no Americans were killed in the assault, but did not say whether the building itself was damaged. After the car bombs exploded at a checkpoint outside the consulate in Peshawar, militants dressed in security uniforms fired mortars or rocket-propelled grenades at the heavily fortified compound in an attempt to make their way inside, said a Pakistani intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

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Fear and anger at killing of South African far-right leader Eugene Terre'Blanche

Far-right supporters of white supremacist leader Eugene Terre'Blanche flocked Sunday to the farm where he was hacked to death, and wept, laid flowers and displayed separatist flags. Grief-stricken and angry followers of the Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB or Afrikaner Resistance Movement) leader also exchanged heated words with police as they tried to enter the farm where Terre'Blanche was murdered Saturday in a killing that heightens racial tensions ahead of the World Cup.

AWB commandant Pieter Steyn rejected suggestions that the 69-year-old Terre'Blanche, who campaigned for a separate white state, and others in the organisation were racists. "We're not racists. We just believe that you should stick to your race," he said, wearing a shirt on which was emblazoned "100 per cent boer", a reference to the Afrikaans word for "farmer". But in the quiet streets of Terre'Blanche's stronghold Ventersdorp on Easter Sunday, ugly white-black incidents were being played out. "A black guy killed a white guy. Obviously it's going to stir a lot of trouble," Kgomotso Kgamanyane, 20, a cashier at a petrol station, told AFP.

• "Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging", NationMaster, 4/6/10.
• "Eugene Terreblanche", The Telegrapgh, 4/4/10.
  

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Mexican cartels cannot be defeated, drug lord says

Mexico's war on the drug trade is futile even if cartel bosses are caught or killed as millions of people are involved in the illicit business, a senior drug chief said in an interview published on Sunday. Ismael "el Mayo" Zambada, the right hand man of Mexico's most notorious drug lord, Sinaloa cartel boss Joaquin "Shorty" Guzman, blamed the government for surging drug violence and said President Felipe Calderon was being duped by his advisors into thinking he was making progress.

"One day I will decide to turn myself in to the government so they can shoot me. ... They will shoot me and euphoria will break out. But at the end of days we'll all know that nothing changed," Zambada told the investigative news magazine Proceso. "Millions of people are wrapped up in the narco problem. How can they be overcome? For all the bosses jailed, dead or extradited their replacements are already there." Mounting drug violence in Mexico has killed 19,500 people since Calderon launched an army-led attempt to crush the cartels after taking power in late 2006. Although financial markets take the daily reports of mayhem in stride, foreign companies are starting to think twice about new investments.

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Iraq bombers target foreign embassies

Reporting from Baghdad - At least 41 people were killed and 237 wounded Sunday in three suicide car bombings targeting the Iranian and German embassies and the Egyptian Consulate in a span of 30 minutes. The attacks, which Iraqi government officials blamed on the Sunni Arab extremist group Al Qaeda in Iraq, came two days after unknown gunmen in uniforms massacred 25 people in a Sunni district south of Baghdad.

The bloodshed raises fears that the security situation could unravel before Iraq's next government is formed, as armed groups and political parties look to exploit the uncertain period after last month's national elections. The conditions are reminiscent of early 2006 when Al Qaeda in Iraq took advantage of the transition between elected governments to blow up a major Shiite Muslim shrine and ignite a civil war between the country's Shiite majority and its Sunni minority, which dominated the government of President Saddam Hussein before he was toppled in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

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Moscow Remains Insecure After Ten Years of Fighting Terrorism in the North Caucasus

Thirty-nine people died and over 80 were wounded as a result of two explosions on the Moscow metro system during the morning rush hour on March 29. The insurgency in the North Caucasus has been labeled the primary suspect for what is believed to have been a double suicide attack in the central part of the Russian capital, but as of late last night, Russian police still have not presented an indisputable link or information on who was responsible. The attack appeared to come as a shock for both the Russian public and the government, given that Moscow had enjoyed a period of relative safety for the previous six years and the Russian security services repeatedly told the public that the insurgency in the North Caucasus was almost done away with.

Aside from the rhetoric, little has been offered so far to enhance the safety of Moscow’s inhabitants. Initially, the upper house of the Russian parliament, the Federation Council, made a statement that it would introduce capital punishment for terrorists, but later this was revoked by the deputy speaker, Aleksandr Torshin. If the Russian security services adopt the usual way of reacting to terrorist attacks, more suspected insurgents are likely to be killed in the North Caucasus in the next few weeks. It is symptomatic that both Russian leaders, President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin, called for such measures as executions to fight terrorism. Yet, the Russian security services, as it is, rarely arrest terrorist suspects in the North Caucasus, instead preferring to kill them on the spot. So, it is difficult to imagine that these failed practices will for some reason work now.

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18 gunmen die in attack on two army bases in Mexico

Dozens of gunmen mounted rare and apparently coordinated attacks targeting two army garrisons in northern Mexico, touching off firefights that killed 18 attackers. The attempts to blockade soldiers inside their bases -- part of seven near-simultaneous attacks across two northern states -- appeared to mark a serious escalation in Mexico's drug war, in which cartel gunmen attacked in unit-size forces armed with bulletproof vehicles, dozens of hand grenades and assault rifles.

While drug gunmen frequently shoot at soldiers on patrol, they seldom target army bases, and even more rarely attack in the force displayed during the confrontations Tuesday in the border states of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon -- areas that have seen a surge of bloodshed in recent months. The violence mainly involves a fight between the Gulf cartel and its former allies, the Zetas, a gang of hit men. The cartel -- which has apparently formed an alliance with other cartels seeking to exterminate the Zetas -- has been warning people in the region with a series of banners and e-mails that the conflict would get worse over the next two to three months.

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