Russia's forever war in the Caucasus

This post is taken from Petger Hodge's, The Strategist, which follows on very nicely from my previous post concerning Russian train attacks spreading to western countries. The post starts...

Luke Harding on the brutal conflict between Russia and Muslim separatists in the North Caucasus: "The misfortune of the four garlic pickers was to have unwittingly strayed into a 'counter-insurgency operation' conducted by Russian forces in the densely wooded border between Chechnya and Ingushetia. The soldiers, apparently looking for militant rebels who are waging their own violent campaign against the Russian state, came across the unarmed group, brutally killing them amid the picturesque massif of low hills." An insightful analysis of this "forever war".

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Moscow Remains Insecure After Ten Years of Fighting Terrorism in the North Caucasus

Thirty-nine people died and over 80 were wounded as a result of two explosions on the Moscow metro system during the morning rush hour on March 29. The insurgency in the North Caucasus has been labeled the primary suspect for what is believed to have been a double suicide attack in the central part of the Russian capital, but as of late last night, Russian police still have not presented an indisputable link or information on who was responsible. The attack appeared to come as a shock for both the Russian public and the government, given that Moscow had enjoyed a period of relative safety for the previous six years and the Russian security services repeatedly told the public that the insurgency in the North Caucasus was almost done away with.

Aside from the rhetoric, little has been offered so far to enhance the safety of Moscow’s inhabitants. Initially, the upper house of the Russian parliament, the Federation Council, made a statement that it would introduce capital punishment for terrorists, but later this was revoked by the deputy speaker, Aleksandr Torshin. If the Russian security services adopt the usual way of reacting to terrorist attacks, more suspected insurgents are likely to be killed in the North Caucasus in the next few weeks. It is symptomatic that both Russian leaders, President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin, called for such measures as executions to fight terrorism. Yet, the Russian security services, as it is, rarely arrest terrorist suspects in the North Caucasus, instead preferring to kill them on the spot. So, it is difficult to imagine that these failed practices will for some reason work now.

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FSB Prevented Moscow Suicide Attacks

Russian authorities said on Tuesday that they had prevented a series of suicide attacks on the capital Moscow last month, underscoring analysts' fears that a simmering Islamist insurgency in the North Caucasus region could reach Moscow. "According to documents from law enforcement services, the activities of five militants trained for suicide attacks were prevented," Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the FSB, the successor to the KGB, told Russian media.

Referring to one man who was detained in Moscow, Bortnikov said he was planning a "terrorist attack" during a public holiday on Sept. 5, when tens of thousands of Muscovites strolled car-free streets in the heart of the city near the Kremlin. An investigation has been launched into the five men's activities, the head of the security services added.

A series of suicide bombs and armed attacks on police and security forces in Chechnya, where Russia has fought two separatist wars, and neighboring Ingushetia and Dagestan, have shattered a few years of relative calm in the North Caucasus. Fears among officials and analysts have grown in recent weeks that the violence along Russia's southern border — a major headache for the Kremlin — could spill over into other parts of Russia.

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