Ranking Terrorist Threats By Degree Of Separation

This past year has been one of the FBI's busiest — at least when it comes to terrorism cases. In the first 10 months of 2009, there have been possible plots exposed in Denver; Springfield, Ill.; Dallas; Boston; and, just this week, Chicago. With so many alleged plots, it's difficult to know how seriously to take any particular threat. So the intelligence community has an informal system for ranking them. The basic idea: The closer the link to al-Qaida, the more serious the plot.

Consider the case of Najibullah Zazi, the Denver-area shuttle bus driver who stands accused of plotting to blow up targets in New York City. Intelligence officials claim that the Zazi case is the most serious this country has faced since Sept. 11, 2001, because they believe Zazi had a direct link to senior al-Qaida leaders. Officials say that in addition to allegedly training in an al-Qaida camp, Zazi apparently called someone in Pakistan for instructions just before he was arrested. That's seen as a red flag, because it suggests that al-Qaida was behind the plot in some way. And al-Qaida, as a general matter, likes its attacks to be big.

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Turkey: We foiled al-Qaida plot against Israeli, U.S. targets

Turkish security forces detained 32 suspected members of the militant group Al-Qaida believed to have been planning attacks on Israeli, U.S. and NATO targets, state-run news agency Anatolian reported on Thursday. The suspects were detained in simultaneous raids across eight provinces, it said, quoting security officials as saying some were believed to have been trained in Al-Qaida camps in Afghanistan.

"Teams from the Istanbul Anti-Terror Squad have launched an operation against Al-Qaida members found to be planning operations against U.S. and Israeli representative offices and NATO installations," Anatolian reported.

Separately, Anatolian said six people were facing charges over their involvement in Al-Qaida suicide bombings that killed some 60 people at two synagogues, an HSBC bank branch and the British consulate in Istanbul in 2003. Seven militants, including a Syrian Al-Qaida member, were previously sentenced to life in prison for their role in the 2003 bombings.

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Al Qaeda Recruits a Growing Number of Americans

Eleven days ago federal agents in Denver foiled an alleged plot on U.S. soil that, for the first time, appears to have posed a true and severe threat to the U.S. homeland. Najibullah Zazi, a permanent resident of Afghan nationality, who pled not guilty yesterday in his arraignment in Brooklyn to charges including for conspiracy to use a weapon of mass destruction. He is believed to have trained to make bombs with Al Qaeda in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan and to have initiated plans—apparently without assistance from undercover agents—with others in the United States to perpetrate a terrorist attack in New York City. The FBI, in other words, has just thwarted the most serious plot, by far, on U.S. soil in the last eight years.

And this is just the beginning. The threat from Al Qaeda to the U.S. homeland is arguably more acute now than at any time since September 11. This is not because Al Qaeda has become a stronger foe. (On the contrary, Osama bin Laden's terrorist network has actually been weakened in the last two years by intensified U.S. missile strikes against its leadership in FATA and a sharp backlash among Muslims worldwide against its violent excesses.) It is because a growing number of Americans have gone to FATA, the global hub of Al Qaeda's terrorist operations, to join the jihad in Afghanistan—something which was very rare until recently—and Al Qaeda, opportunistically, has recruited them for attacks on their country.

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Domestic U.S. Terror Plots Uncovered

Three domestic terror plots have been uncovered by the FBI in recent days which points out that so much vigilance is necessary to keep ourselves safe. These home grown plots seem to be on the rise.

Denver man charged in plot to bomb civilian targets in the U.S.

Documents filed in Brooklyn against Najibullah Zazi, allege he bought the chemicals hydrogen peroxide, acetone and hydrochloric acid to build a bomb using homemade TATP explosives. Many of the ingredients were purchased off local beauty supply store shelves, which sell common household products that can be explosive. Zazi is alleged to be a legal immigrant from Afghanistan, who had carefully prepared for a terrorist attack. He attended an al-Qaeda training camp in Pakistan, received training in explosives and stored in his laptop computer nine pages of instructions for making bombs from the same kind of chemicals he had bought.

Convert to Islam Charged with Plotting to Blow up a Federal Building in Illinois

Michael C. Finton (aka Talib Islam) has been charged with plotting to blow up the federal building in Springfield, Illinois. Finton, who converted to Islam in prison, came to the attention of federal authorities in August 2007 when a search of his vehicle revealed a letter about his desire to be a martyr. Also discovered was a document about waiting for a return letter from John Walker Lindh, the American who was captured fighting for the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001. Finton traveled last year to Saudi Arabia, where he stayed about a month, and received about $1,400 from a man in that country. FBI agents then posed as low-level operatives for al-Qaeda, which culminated in a sting operation last Wednesday, September 23, 2009, when Finton drove a van he thought was loaded with explosives to the Paul Findley Federal Building. He parked and locked the vehicle, then moved a few blocks away before twice making cell phone calls he believed would trigger an explosion.

Jordanian Teenager Arrested in Plot to Blow up Dallas Skyscraper

Hosam Smadi, a Jordanian national aged 19, allegedly plotted to blow up the Fountain Place Tower in downtown Dallas. He came to the attention of the FBI through tirades against Americans on extremist chat sites and desire to wage jihad. The criminal complaint stated that an agent posing as a senior member of an al-Qaeda sleeper cell befriended him. He pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden and expressed anger over the invasion of Gaza by Israel, and said he was ready for the jihadi life. Over the next six months, he met with two agents who posed as terrorists and discussed plans to attack several buildings, settling on the Fountain Place, which contains several bank offices. On Thursday, September 24, 2009, FBI agents provided Smadi with a vehicle containing a fake bomb. He drove it to the parking lot under the tower, armed the fake explosives, and then drove with the agent several blocks away, where he used a cell phone that was supposed to ensure detonation.

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