Using the “So What?” factor in analysis

This is a great article by Libby Stengel from the GroupIntel site...

I was working as an intelligence analyst for a fusion center early in my intelligence career. During my daily reading I came across a piece of information that not only had a reliable source with great access, but also seemed to provide key intelligence information. I quickly grabbed the report and rushed to my supervisor to show him my great find. He stared at me and said, “So what?”

The supervisor understood that the information was important but he didn’t know what to do with the raw information. As that newly minted intelligence analyst I quickly learned to take every piece of information or intelligence provided and figure out why it was important. A director or even a section lead at an analysis center does not have the intimate knowledge or time that an analyst would have to devote to understanding a specific situation. I learned that Raw, unanalyzed information is noise that clouds decisions. Carefully analyzed information can be a decision making tool.

Analysts must:

• Connect the dots. Where does this information fit with the existing understanding of the topic? Is it a new threat stream, trend or person? How does it affect the mission and goals of my agency?
  
• Explain - Why should I care about this information? What makes you believe that this information is important? Is it time sensitive? Does it complete the puzzle on a threat or person you had been following? Is it completely different than what you had seen previously? Will this change my agency’s view on a topic or person?
  
• Summarize thoughts into succinct and convincing statements. Provide not only a summation of the information, but also your educated opinion on the situation. What will happen if we do nothing? What will happen if we do something? Worst case and best case scenarios? When encountering several information or intelligence items that you want to combine into a threat assessment, intelligence report or “product,” it is important to analyze each part separately.
  

Then, look at the information as a whole. When formatting a report, there are three tips that always help:

• Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF). This is a one-to-two line summary of what I am going to tell you with my educated opinion included in it.
  
• Text of Information or Intelligence. If a piece of intelligence is highly relevant, provide the entire, original text for those who will have time to read it . In some instances, including a map is helpful for readers.
  
• So What? Using the previously listed three musts, tell the reader why they should care about this new or different information.

The truth is that analysts are the people who make intelligence actionable. Remember, you have far more knowledge about the subject than anyone reading it. Be the expert and share your insight! Doing the interpretation and the concise reporting is a foundation for success, so that the most insightful decisions can be made.

Read more...

African Crime Analysis with a Twist

Villagers in Kilifi County are on a killing spree, targeting suspected witches and meting out the ultimate form of justice — death. The killings, first witnessed two years ago but somehow ebbed, are now on a resurgence in the area. Three elderly people — two of them a couple — have been killed in the past one week alone in their houses. The County covers Bahari, Malindi and Magarini constituencies. At least 10 people suspected to be witches were brutally killed in Kilifi County in the past three months, a police crime analysis report indicates.

The latest such incident occurred last Saturday when three men beheaded Mr Kazungu Mranja of Timboni village in Mjanaheri location after he was accused of engaging in witchcraft. Police in Malindi have launched a manhunt for the killers. Last week, a couple, Mzee Mzungu Charo, 70, and his wife Mrs Luvuno Kapombe, 60, were brutally murdered in their house at Pumwani village in Magarini on the same witchcraft suspicions. In the past two years alone, more than 27 elderly people, including an assistant chief, Mr Albert Mulanda Lughanje of Shomela location, have lost their lives in the hands of armed gangs.

Coast Provincial Police Officer Leo Nyongesa expressed confidence that his officers will bring to an end killings of innocent people in the county. According to the PPO, a crime analysis done in August and September this year indicates that the 10 deaths were recorded at Kilifi and two in Malindi. “Elderly persons are mostly targeted and police officers will not relent in their quest to bring to book those behind the killings,” Mr Nyongesa said. But police further suspect that the figure could be higher since some deaths are caused by the victims’ relatives.

Read more...

City of Reno encourages online crime reporting as it flows into Crime Analysis

In the current economic climate, staff reductions to law enforcement agencies mean that officers are not responding to non-emergency crimes to file reports. Now it is the citizens' responsibility to go to the police department, or file a report with the Online Crime Reporting System that can be accessed through the city of Reno's website. Community Services Officer Craig Nielson says it's user friendly and will save you the time and hassle of visiting a police station to file a report. He says the Reno Police Department encourages citizens to go online because even if they do not have a suspect description or the confidence that the person could be caught, those reports still help the city with crime fighting.

"The information they provide us still is valuable because that flows into our crime analysis...it alerts us to what are the crime trends and what is going on out there," Nielson said. "Where...we need to use patrol and our attention." It is important to note that whether someone takes a crime report for you at the police station, or you go online, all the information goes to the same place, there is not a delay with the online option, and you do get a conformation and case number via e-mail. You can even check the status of your case on this same site. If investigators have questions, they will contact you directly. The website is located at www.reno.gov, then click on "I want to" at the top of the page, then from the drop down menu click on "report" and from the submenu select "Police Online Reporting System."

Read more...

Crime Analysis Unit Helps Catch Armed Robber

A man suspected of being the “Red Striped Bandit” was arrested following a Monday armed robbery and is thought to be involved in a series of similar crimes stretching back to 2007, according to an affidavit released Tuesday by police in Fort Pierce, Florida.

Cedrick T. Beckwith, 26, of the 800 block of Georgia Avenue, faces a robbery with firearm charge in connection with the Monday evening incident at the Ramallah Food Market in the 3000 block of Orange Avenue.

The department’s crime analysis unit helped identify an apparent pattern of robberies and attempted robberies beginning in October 2007, Sgt. Dennis McWilliams said. The incidents occurred at either the same store or same type of store and at around the same time of evening in the fall or winter months. The suspect description also was generally consistent.

He wore a black jacket with red stripes, and police dubbed him the “Red Striped Bandit.” The pattern included four robberies and two attempted robberies.

About 7:30 p.m. Monday, a worker at the Ramallah market told police a man wearing a navy blue hooded sweater pointed a .38 caliber revolver at him and demanded money. The gunman hopped over the counter and took all the cash in the register, police said.

Read more...

Crime analysis and the critical role of location intelligence

Crime analysis is a law enforcement profession dedicated to the identification of patterns, trends and problems in crime and disorder. It has become an increasingly important part of policing and crime prevention and thousands of specialist crime analysts are now employed by police forces worldwide. Crime analysts work at all levels in policing the study of crime, incident, and intelligence information. The role is to identify, predict and forecast occurrences and suggest solutions, effective strategies and tactics to address crime and disorder. Other duties include preparing statistics, data queries and the use of geographical information systems(GIS) for the identification of local, regional, national and international crime concerns.

Read more...

New York Crime Drops 70% since 1990

“If the murder rate stayed where it was in 2001, there would have been 760 additional homicides in New York City,” in the last eight years. “History tells us 90% of the victims would have been minorities from low income neighborhoods.”

“Since 1990, as crime has fallen by more than 70%, admissions from New York City into state prisons has also fallen by 57%, from more than 16,000 in 1990 to fewer than 7,000 in 2008. What we’re showing is that success in fighting crime can lead to smaller, not larger, prison populations.”

Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his commissioners, of course, first rescued the city by proving law enforcement could prevent crime. Almost as remarkable is that Mayor Bloomberg has managed to drive the crime rate even lower.

The result, after 16 years of pressure and innovation, is that New York is by far the safest big city in America. Major crime, including murder and rape, has been cut by 76%, including an 11% drop this year. Since 1993, stolen car reports are down by an incredible 90%.

Noting the department might stop 600,000 people this year, an increase of 100,000 over 2008, Commissioner Raymond Kelly said: “This is a proven law enforcement tactic to fight and deter crime; one that is authorized by criminal procedure law.”

Read more...

Identity Theft ring caught in California

On a spring day last year, a Pakistani man came to Shamsha Laiwalla looking for help. He told her he had recently jumped off a cargo ship docked in the Port of Los Angeles and was now looking to buy a new identity. On the surface, Laiwalla was not an obvious go-to person. She owns a seemingly innocuous vehicle registration company -- one of the thousands in California that take care of DMV-related tasks for people willing to pay for the convenience.

For years, however, the 44-year-old Pakistan native has offered customers a startling menu of illegal services as the architect of an extensive fraud ring involving sev7/26/09.eral DMV employees she regularly paid to produce licenses and other documents, according to Los Angeles police and federal officials. The names of at least some of her alleged clients have surfaced in ongoing federal investigations into national security issues, said LAPD Deputy Chief Michael Downing.

The Pakistani man was, in fact, an undercover detective in the Los Angeles Police Department's counter-terrorism bureau, which is headed by Downing. For $3,500, Laiwalla told the detective, she could get a valid California driver's license with his photo, an expertly forged birth certificate and a Social Security card, police say. All the documents would bear his new name, Francisco Gonzalez Rios.

• "Counter-terrorism investigators find alleged identity theft ring", LA Times, 7/26/09.
• "Fighting Back Against Identity Theft", Federal Trade Commission website.
• "Identity Theft and Identity Fraud", U.S. Department of Justice website.
• "IDTheft.gov" website.
  

Read more...

The Foundation: Intelligence-led Policing (ILP)

One result of the changes in our society is that today’s criminals are displaying increased sophistication and operational agility in their efforts to subvert law and order. This in turn has created a need for law enforcement agencies – at all levels – to concentrate their collective efforts in a more structured manner and to modernize the various business processes they use to determine resource allocations. Experience suggests that the optimum way to achieve these goals is through a new series of processes and procedures called Intelligence-Led Policing. Intelligence-led policing is an extremely useful way of thinking about law enforcement and delivery of police services. ILP is all about providing decision-makers at any level of a law enforcement organization with the intelligence and analysis upon which to base good decisions.

Intelligence-led policing is both a business model and managerial philosophy. Crime analysis and criminal intelligence are the foundations to an objective, decision-making framework that facilitates crime and problem reduction, disruption and prevention through both strategic management and effective enforcement strategies that target prolific and serious offenders.

Intelligence-led policing was originally thought of as a law enforcement strategy seeking to reduce crime through the combined use of crime analysis and criminal intelligence. The purpose was to determine appropriate crime reduction tactics that concentrate on the prevention and enforcement of criminal offender activity, with a focus on active recidivists.

This approach emphasized information gathering through the extensive use of confidential informants, offender interviews, analysis of recorded crime and calls for service, surveillance of suspects, and community sources of information. These sources were analyzed so that law enforcement managers could determine objective policing tactics in regard to enforcement targets, prevention activities and further intelligence gathering operations.

In the last few years, the interpretation of 'intelligence-led policing' appears to be broadening in scope. While still retaining the central notion that police should avoid getting bogged down in reactive, individual, case investigations, intelligence-led policing is evolving into a management philosophy that places greater emphasis on information-sharing and collaborative, strategic solutions to crime problems at the local and regional level.

Originating in the United Kingdom, intelligence-led policing began with the idea that police were spending too much time responding to crime and too little time targeting offenders. Audit reports encouraged increased use of intelligence, surveillance and informants to target recidivist offenders so that police could be more effective in fighting crime. Since then, ILP and its practice has extended to Australia, New Zealand, Europe, and since September 11th, 2001, the United States.

However, ILP will never reach its true potential unless all police, law enforcement and public safety leaders catch the vision of this important paradigm. Intelligence-led policing is a model that has gained significant acceptance in the United States since 9/11. There is a good reason for this: no other single approach can offer the same protection in the current worldwide environment of crime, terrorism and the explosion of information. More importantly, in its wider application ILP works well with other models and enhances them by providing a foundation of analysis. Whatever policing approach that is adopted locally, ILP can make it work better. It does so by providing the intelligence and information on which to more accurately base decisions about any given problem or situation.

Links for further information on Intelligence-led Policing:

• IALEIA. Intelligence-led Policing: Getting Started.
  
• Colonel Joseph R. Fuentes. Practical Guide to Intelligence-led Policing. New Jersey State Police.
• Marilyn Peterson. Intelligence-led Policing: The New Intelligence Architecture. Bureau of Justice Assistance.
• Angus Smith (ed). Intelligence-led Policing: International Perspectives on Policing in the 21st Century. IALEIA.
• Nick Tilley & Jill Dando. Problem-Oriented Policing, Intelligence-Led Policing and the National Intelligence Model. University College London.
• Association of Chief Police Officers. Practice Advice: Introduction to Intelligence-Led Policing. National Centre for Policing Excellence.
• Jerry H. Ratcliffe. Intelligence-led Policing. Australian Institute of Criminology.
  

Read more...