Ranking Terrorist Threats By Degree Of Separation

This past year has been one of the FBI's busiest — at least when it comes to terrorism cases. In the first 10 months of 2009, there have been possible plots exposed in Denver; Springfield, Ill.; Dallas; Boston; and, just this week, Chicago. With so many alleged plots, it's difficult to know how seriously to take any particular threat. So the intelligence community has an informal system for ranking them. The basic idea: The closer the link to al-Qaida, the more serious the plot.

Consider the case of Najibullah Zazi, the Denver-area shuttle bus driver who stands accused of plotting to blow up targets in New York City. Intelligence officials claim that the Zazi case is the most serious this country has faced since Sept. 11, 2001, because they believe Zazi had a direct link to senior al-Qaida leaders. Officials say that in addition to allegedly training in an al-Qaida camp, Zazi apparently called someone in Pakistan for instructions just before he was arrested. That's seen as a red flag, because it suggests that al-Qaida was behind the plot in some way. And al-Qaida, as a general matter, likes its attacks to be big.

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PhoneSnoop application bugs BlackBerrys

The Department of Homeland Security's U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team (US-CERT) is warning BlackBerry users about a spyware program that allows attackers to turn a target's handset into a microphone that can be accessed remotely.

PhoneSnoop is a free, remote spying application designed for BlackBerry phones. The app works by intercepting phone calls from a predetermined 'trigger' number. When PhoneSnoop detects an incoming call from that number, it accepts the call and turns on the BlackBerry's speaker phone, effectively allowing the caller to listen in on the target's surroundings.

There are some very real limitations of this spying app: For starters, an attacker would need to have physical access to the victim's phone in order to install the app. PhoneSnoop also can't listen in on the victim's phone calls, and it leaves a conspicuous new program icon in the victim's app list.

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Terrorists are using blogs to engage counter-terrorists experts online

A senior Arab Afghan adviser to al Qaeda and the Taliban has openly challenged an Australian counter-terrorism expert in a series of blog posts. Abu Walid al Masri has written direct responses to Leah Farrall, an Australian academic who writes the All things Counter Terrorism blog and has years of experience fighting terrorism with the Australian Federal Police.

Farrall recently described al Masri as “one of Mullah Omar’s most trusted advisers” in an op-ed for the Australian. He has written 12 books in Arabic relating to Afghanistan and al Qaeda, and has just re-emerged as an author for the Taliban’s flagship magazine publication, in which he recently encouraged the Taliban to engage in the kidnapping of British and American soldiers. Because of this, Al Masri has been one of Farrall’s “main academic interests for many years” and she was shocked read his blog posts about her: “To say that I am blown away by this would be a pretty massive understatement”.

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New software aids law enforcement in solving gun and gang related crimes

ShieldOps is the name of the company. GunOps and Gang Injunction are the names of the programs that could help improve the investigation and completion of gun and gang-related crimes. The inventors in the company’s programs are Jon Centanni, a Cal State Fullerton alumnus and detective sergeant, and Rocky Edwards, a firearms examiner. Both work for a large municipal law enforcement agency in Southern California.

It began with an idea; ShieldOps was created due to the demand. As Edwards quoted from a well-known Aesop fable, “Necessity is the mother of invention.” The overwhelming amount of case data they go through daily needed some form of organization. By chance, Centanni and Edwards were attempting new ways of cataloging data around the same time.

Edwards came up with an idea of tracking gun-related crimes through firearm cartridge cases and bullets. Simultaneously, Centanni was beginning to experiment as well. “I started working on creating a database to track all of the hits that (Edwards) kept stacking on my desk. I needed something to organize in my mind all of the ballistically linked cases because there are so many of them,” Centanni said.

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Crime analysis and the critical role of location intelligence

Crime analysis is a law enforcement profession dedicated to the identification of patterns, trends and problems in crime and disorder. It has become an increasingly important part of policing and crime prevention and thousands of specialist crime analysts are now employed by police forces worldwide. Crime analysts work at all levels in policing the study of crime, incident, and intelligence information. The role is to identify, predict and forecast occurrences and suggest solutions, effective strategies and tactics to address crime and disorder. Other duties include preparing statistics, data queries and the use of geographical information systems(GIS) for the identification of local, regional, national and international crime concerns.

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The threat of homegrown terrorism

The apprehension last week of Sudbury native Tarek Mehanna is the fifth terrorism-related arrest in the United States in as many months, putting homegrown radicalism back on the radar screen. But many question whether individuals like Mehanna are the “real deal.’’ Do they really pose a significant terrorist threat or are they acting out but lack the capability to inflict any real damage? How dangerous are homegrown radicals? Will the United States, like Europe, become more susceptible to native radicals rather than terrorist plots hatched abroad from organized groups like Al Qaeda?

Terrorism specialist Marc Sageman claims that we are facing a “leaderless jihad.’’ Al Qaeda central is not the driving force of terrorism as an operational machine but rather its ideology serves as an inspiration for self-organizing local groups to carry out their own attacks. But other experts, including Bruce Hoffman, maintain that it is established organizations like Al Qaeda that remain the dominant threat and that we must focus more on the organization and its capabilities rather than random, radicalized individuals.

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Proving Himself, Abu Yazid Is Al-Qaida No. 3 Man

There's a new face of al-Qaida and he can bee seen on videos the group's propaganda arm produces. His name is Mustafa abu Yazid and he is the head of a small command that, among other things, helps direct al-Qaida attacks. A recent Internet appearance came soon after the U.S. killed the head of the Taliban in Pakistan in a Predator drone attack. Al-Qaida filmed a video eulogy for the Internet and abu Yazid was the star in the eight-minute film extolling the virtues of Baituallah Mehsud.

Terrorism experts say abu Yazid is on the rise. He is No. 3 in al-Qaida's organization and heads up one of al-Qaida's most important terrorism networks: the theater of operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. "The leader with the closest relationships with those networks critical to the activities of al-Qaida central in that region is Mustafa abu Yazid," said Vahid Brown, a fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. "And that's why he has become what many people call No. 3 in the organization."

No. 1 and No. 2 are Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Officials say that bin Laden and Zawahiri may have concluded that at this point they more valuable as symbols of al-Qaida, instead of its chief executives. They ceded many of the group's day-to-day operations to trusted allies. Abu Yazid now heads up al-Qaida's general command committee. That's the group in charge of planning attacks and strategy.

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Mexican Cartels are Taking over US Marijuana Production

Life is getting a bit harder for Mexican drug lords these days. Not only do they have to worry about the Mexican military and U.S. law enforcement tripping up their drug trafficking efforts. Now they have some supply problems from a place they might not have expected – competition from U.S.-based marijuana producers.

Several media outlets have published recent reports regarding U.S. marijuana farms, known as “grows.” A Washington Post article from Oct. 7 said that thousands of mom-and-pop grows in the U.S. are threatening cartel profits, partly because of recent changes in state laws that allow the legal use of medical marijuana. So what’s a Mexican cartel to do? Well, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.

According to the U.S. Department of Justice’s National Drug Intelligence Center (NDIC), Mexican cartels have also moved to increasingly cultivate marijuana on public lands in the United States. McClatchy News recently published the following:

“There is no doubt” that three big marijuana fields uncovered this month in Ellis and Navarro counties, in Texas, “have a tie to the border and a Mexican drug cartel,” said a drug investigator for the Texas Department of Public Safety. “They brought the tenders up here from Mexico to do the work.”

The Washington Post article further stated that the Mexican traffickers’ illegal use of public lands is a response to the dramatic increase in U.S. production, according to authorities and growers. In the northern woods of California, illegal immigrants hired by well-heeled Mexican “patrones,” or bosses, lay miles of plastic pipe and install oscillating sprinkler systems for clandestine fields that produce a cheaper, faster-growing “commercial grade” of marijuana.

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Death Toll Rises To 155 In Dual Baghdad Bombings

The death toll from Iraq's worst attack in more than two years climbed to 155 Monday as Iraqis buried the dead from the twin suicide bombings that devastated the heart of Baghdad. Funerals were held around the city amid heightened security that snarled traffic during the morning rush hour. The bombings targeted two government buildings, calling into question the state's ability to protect itself as it prepares for January elections and the U.S. military withdrawal.

"Sadness is overwhelming today in the office," said one government employee, who asked that her name not be used because she did not want to be reprimanded for speaking publicly about authorities. "It's as if we are sitting at a funeral in the office because many of our colleagues and people we know were killed."

The attacks targeted the Baghdad Provincial Administration building and the Justice Ministry, wounding hundreds of people, including three American contractors. Officials revised the number of wounded down to about 500 Monday, from 700 the day before. There have been no claims of responsibility or arrests so far.

• "Bombings rock Iraq's political landscape", Washington Post, 10/26/09.
• "Baghdad bombings expose security challenges", LE Examiner, 10/26/09.
  

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Globalization Boosts Europe's Gangsters

As borders come down within and beyond Europe, it is not only legitimate businesses that are benefiting, but also those that produce illegal drugs, traffic in humans, manufacture fake luxury goods, and counterfeit euros – businesses better known as organised crime – are profiting too, according to a new report from the EU's criminal intelligence agency.

Liberalisation, low-cost airlines, and China's low-wage economy are all helping Europe's gangsters to thrive while the rest of the economy remains in crisis, says Europol's 2009 organised crime threat assessment. The report breaks up Europe's gangs into five 'hubs', the most important of which are those from the northwest, centred on the Netherlands and to a lesser extent Belgium.

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States Pressed Into New Role on Marijuana

Health and law enforcement officials around the nation are scrambling to figure out how to regulate medical marijuana now that the federal government has decided it will no longer prosecute legal users or providers.

For years, since the first medical marijuana laws were passed in the mid-1990s, many local and state governments could be confident, if not complacent, knowing that marijuana would be kept in check because it remained illegal under federal law, and that hard-nosed federal prosecutors were not about to forget it.

But with the Justice Department’s announcement last week that it would not prosecute people who use marijuana for medical purposes in states where it is legal, local and state officials say they will now have to take on the job themselves.

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Global pirate attacks on the increase

The first nine months of this year has seen more pirate attacks than all of last year. And more than half of those attacks were carried out by suspected Somali pirates, an international maritime watchdog group said Wednesday. "The increased activity in Somalia is the major reason for the spike," said Cyrus Mody, manager of the International Maritime Bureau, which monitors shipping crimes. From January 1 until September 30, pirates worldwide mounted 306 attacks, compared with 293 in all of 2008, the Bureau said.

Of the incidents this year, Somali pirates accounted for 54 percent: they launched 168 attacks. Most of them took place off the east coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden, a major shipping route between Yemen and Somalia. They successfully hijacked 32 vessels and took 533 hostages. Eight others were wounded, four more killed and one is missing, the Bureau said. Somali pirates are still holding four ships for ransom with 80 crew members as hostages.

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CIA Buys Stake in Firm That Monitors Blogs, Tweets

In-Q-Tel, the investment arm of the CIA and the wider intelligence community, is putting cash into Visible Technologies, a software firm that specializes in monitoring social media. It’s part of a larger movement within the spy services to get better at using "open source intelligence” — information that’s publicly available, but often hidden in the flood of TV shows, newspaper articles, blog posts, online videos and radio reports generated every day.

Visible crawls over half a million web 2.0 sites a day, scraping more than a million posts and conversations taking place on blogs, online forums, Flickr, YouTube, Twitter and Amazon. (It doesn’t touch closed social networks, like Facebook, at the moment.) Customers get customized, real-time feeds of what’s being said on these sites, based on a series of keywords.

Then Visible “scores” each post, labeling it as positive or negative, mixed or neutral. It examines how influential a conversation or an author is. Finally, Visible gives users a chance to tag posts, forward them to colleagues and allow them to response through a web interface.

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France seeks Seychelles' help in trying suspected Somali pirates

French Defense Minister Herve Morin asked Seychelles authorities Sunday to prosecute suspected pirates operating in the Indian Ocean. Bringing to justice suspected Somali pirates captured by international navies in the Indian Ocean has proven difficult as lawless Somalia cannot try them, while most European countries do not want to take in a suspected pirate who may then claim asylum. This month, 11 suspected pirates were captured after they tried to attack French tuna boats. The Somalis were released shortly afterward due to a lack of evidence.

On a trip to the Seychelles, Morin told reporters he had asked authorities to set up a legal system allowing for the trial of such suspects. But Joel Morgan, the Seychelles minister in charge of environment, resources and transport, said the island lacked the resources. "We have a single prison here, for some 300 people, so taking in a large number of Somalis can cause problems with capacity," he said. France is protecting its tuna fleet off the Seychelles by deploying marines on the civilian ships. Morin said that mission would be extended into next year.

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Flow of Western terrorist recruits increasing

U.S. and European counterterrorism officials say a rising number of Western recruits -- including Americans -- are traveling to Afghanistan and Pakistan to attend paramilitary training camps. The flow of recruits has continued unabated, officials said, in spite of an intensified campaign over the past year by the CIA to eliminate al-Qaeda and Taliban commanders in drone missile attacks.

Since January, at least 30 recruits from Germany have traveled to Pakistan for training, according to German security sources. About 10 people -- not necessarily the same individuals -- have returned to Germany this year, fueling concerns that fresh plots are in the works against European targets. "We think this is sufficient to show how serious the threat is," said a senior German counterterrorism official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

German security services have been on high alert since last month, when groups affiliated with the Taliban and al-Qaeda issued several videos warning that an attack on German targets was imminent if the government did not bring home its forces from Afghanistan

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Pakistani forces battle Taliban in South Waziristan

Pakistani forces exchanged heavy fire on Sunday with Taliban defending their heartland, a day after launching an offensive aimed at bringing the writ of the state to lawless lands on the Afghan border. The army said 60 militants and five soldiers had been killed in the first 24 hours of a long-awaited offensive on the global Islamist hub of South Waziristan. Soldiers were securing territory while some militants were fleeing, it said. There was no independent verification of the casualty toll.

The offensive follows militant attacks in different parts of the country, including an assault on army headquarters in which more than 150 people were killed. About 28,000 soldiers are battling an estimated 10,000 hard-core Taliban, including about 1,000 Uzbek fighters and some Arab al Qaeda members. The militants have had years to prepare their defences in the land of arid mountains and sparse forest cut by dried-up creeks and ravines.

• "Tackling the other Taliban", The Economist, 10/1/09.
  
• "Pakistan: The Militant Jihadi Threat", International Crisis Group, 3/13/09.
  
• "Hotbed of Terror", Council on Foreign Relations, 8/11/08.
• "The Taliban of Afghanistan", Council on Foreign Relations, 8/3/09.
• "Pakistan's New Generation of Terrorists", Council on Foreign Relations, 2/6/08.
• "Pakistan's Tribal Areas", Council on Foreign Relations, 10/26/07.
  

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Police helicopter downed in Brazil by drug gang

Two Brazilian policemen have been killed after their helicopter came under fire from gang members in a slum below them and crashed. The pilot struggled to put the helicopter down safely after being shot in the leg by suspected drug-traffickers while flying over a Rio slum on Saturday, a police official said.

"The helicopter was hit by criminals and the pilot made a forced landing on a football pitch," Major Oderlei Santos of the military police said. The aircraft exploded shortly after touching down, leaving two officers stuck inside the burning wreckage.

The helicopter had been carrying six police officers as part of an operation in Morro dos Macacos, one of Rio's hundreds of slums, which is dominated by heavily armed drug gangs, police said.

• "Brazil 2009 Crime and Safety Report: Rio de Janeiro", Overseas Security Advisory council, 8/21/09.
• "To Rid Slums of Drug Gangs, Police in Rio Try War Tactics", Washington Post, 1/6/09.
• "Brazil's Powerful Prison Gang", Council on Foreign Relations, 9/6/06.

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