The Threat of Politicized Intelligence

If new US National Security Adviser Thomas E. Donilon needs a reminder of how stark the enemy threat is, he need look no further than today's discovery of printer cartridges rigged like explosive devices aboard UPS airliner cargo holds that left Yemen bound for Jewish Synagogues in the United States. A dry run? You bet. And not just to test the holes in air cargo security systems, but to test the reaction time and responsiveness of our national security apparatus.

The backroom maneuvering that led to Donilon's ascent and the departure of his predecessor, Gen. James L. Jones (USMC Ret), is a dangerous reminder of what happens when politics enters the world of intelligence gathering, analysis and policy-making. Donilon, whose reputation as a backroom Democratic Party wheeler dealer precedes him, would do well now to shed that skin and get down to the serious business at hand in containing and controlling threats that are approaching four-dimensional complexity against American--and global--security interests.

History is replete with bad decisions made by men and women charged with securing America who lamely, selfishly and often purposefully politicized intelligence for narrow political objectives. Those failures should serve as a reminder to Donilon and the team he assembles that America's enemies are lurking and waiting for any sign of weakness to attack us. And attack us they will.

During both the Clinton and Bush presidencies, political machinations repeatedly overtook good judgment in assessing the vast amounts of intelligence gathered by the most formidable surveillance apparatus the world has ever known. Bill Clinton repeatedly ignored warnings and advice from people in and out of government about the storm brewing inside Islam's radical fringe. On September 11, 2001, the hypothetical threat--ignored and politicized for so many years--became a harsh reality. We are living with the consequences of that misjudgment today.

Much of the failure to deal with militant Islam inside the Clinton presidency came from his national security team, which (with the exception of former counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke) had little practical experience with military campaigns, counterterrorism strategies, guerrilla warfare tactics or other facets so critical to ensuring modern-day security. They repeatedly, and with increasing stridency, politicized intelligence gathering, analysis and policy responses. Sudan, on which I write from personal knowledge and experience, was a prime example of what America can never afford to allow again.

This article is taken from The Washington Post "On Leadership" Guest Insights and its particularly relevant in today's intelligence environment.

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Militants Overtake India as Top Threat, Says Pakistan's ISI

Pakistan's main spy agency says homegrown Islamist militants have overtaken the Indian army as the greatest threat to national security, a finding with potential ramifications for relations between the two rival South Asian nations and for the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. A recent internal assessment of security by the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's powerful military spy agency, determined that for the first time in 63 years it expects a majority of threats to come from Islamist militants, according to a senior ISI officer.

The assessment, a regular review of national security, allocates a two-thirds likelihood of a major threat to the state coming from militants rather than from India or elsewhere. It is the first time since the two countries gained independence from Britain in 1947 that India hasn't been viewed as the top threat. Decades into one of the most bitter neighborly rivalries in modern history, both countries maintain huge troop deployments along their Himalayan border. "It's earth shattering. That's a remarkable change," said Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism specialist and professor at Georgetown University. "It's yet another ratcheting up of the Pakistanis' recognition of not only their own internal problems but cooperation in the war on terrorism

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US senator warns of terrorist threat to oil rigs

While the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has put accidental spills squarely in the national spotlight, one U.S. senator is warning of another possible threat: deliberate sabotage. Democrat Jim Webb of Virginia is calling on the Obama administration to develop plans to safeguard offshore platforms from attack by terrorists. The senator, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, made his case in a letter to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar.

"While Congress will continue to scrutinize BP and regulatory agencies, I write to urge you to also be vigilant against deliberate acts, such as an attack or sabotage, that could similarly devastate the region," Webb said in the letter, referring to the Gulf Coast. But he wants the security plans adopted for all U.S. coastal areas. While there are no oil derricks off Virginia's coast, Webb, the state's senior senator, favors oil and gas exploration in Virginia waters. He also backs a controversial moratorium in deepwater drilling ordered by the Interior Department, until risks and safeguards can be better assessed.

Webb notes in the letter that the BP oil spill is the worst environmental disaster in the country's history. He said that, "With dozens of wells operating in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere, we must employ policies that mitigate all types of risk." The senator said that a lack of vigilance on security issues "could leave the marine ecosystem, as well as certain areas of our national security, at great risk."

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U.S. Courthouses now under threat

At a time of heightened concerns over threats to government officials, federal authorities in Spokane kept quiet about the discovery of a bomb found alongside the Thomas S. Foley U.S. Courthouse last week. They acknowledged the investigation Wednesday, however, after the latest edition of Newsweek magazine disclosed the March 28 discovery as part of an article examining increasing anti-government threats and violence spreading across the nation. U.S. Attorney Jim McDevitt defended the decision to try keeping the case under wraps. “It’s an ongoing criminal investigation,” McDevitt said. “Basically, that’s all we can say.” The device was located late in the evening on a Sunday, said Tom Rice, spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Washington. Rice wouldn’t describe the device, where it was found or whether federal agents have identified any suspects.

Meanwhile, a Kansas City man, believed to be homeless, has been charged in connection with a bomb threat at the federal courthouse there earlier this week. Manuel Garcia, 66, was charged with placing a fake bomb outside the courthouse and making a false bomb threat over the telephone. A soft cooler was found near the east entrance to the federal courthouse on Monday morning. The cooler had a note attached, threatening that there would be an explosion. The bomb squad later determined that the cooler contained two small Kansas City telephone books. While authorities were investigating, a 911 call was received at 10:01 a.m. indicating that there were three additional explosive devices in the federal courthouse. According to court documents, a supervisor recognized Garcia’s voice from an earlier investigation, and Garcia was interviewed the same day.

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North African states meet on al-Qaeda terror threat

Cooperation, coordination and the sharing of information and resources are all at the heart of intelligence-led policing and counter-insurgency operations, whether at interagency or international levels. Threats shared and fought together make the battle much easier. It is therefore heartening to see seven North African countries holding talks today in Algeria to plan a coordinated response to al-Qaeda following a dangerous rise in the terror threat in the Sahara-Sahel region (shown above in yellow and orange, map courtesy of Wikipedia). The conference "indicates our shared will to take adequate and suitable steps in a coordinated manner" in response to the terror threat, "which has seen dangerous developments", said Algerian Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci.

An al-Qaeda offshoot in North Africa, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (Aqim), along with other criminal groups, has exploited the vast spaces of the Sahara and Sahel to hide from authorities after launching attacks or kidnapping foreigners. "Obviously, putting into place effective and multifaceted border cooperation between our countries is crucial," Medelci said before he and his counterparts or their deputies from Burkina Faso, Chad, Libya, Mali, Mauritania and Niger began talks behind closed doors. Medelci also condemned growing links between terror and criminal groups in the region that has seen a rise in weapons and drug smuggling.

• "Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)", Anti-Defamation League, 2010.
• "Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb", Council on Foreign Relations, 7/21/09.
• "Islamist Terrorism in the Sahel: Fact or Fiction?", International Crisis Group, 3/31/05.
• "Maghreb" overview, LookLex Encyclopedia, 2010.
  
• "Sahara" overview, PBS, 2010.
  
• "Sahel" overview, PBS, 2010.

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The threat of homegrown terrorism

The apprehension last week of Sudbury native Tarek Mehanna is the fifth terrorism-related arrest in the United States in as many months, putting homegrown radicalism back on the radar screen. But many question whether individuals like Mehanna are the “real deal.’’ Do they really pose a significant terrorist threat or are they acting out but lack the capability to inflict any real damage? How dangerous are homegrown radicals? Will the United States, like Europe, become more susceptible to native radicals rather than terrorist plots hatched abroad from organized groups like Al Qaeda?

Terrorism specialist Marc Sageman claims that we are facing a “leaderless jihad.’’ Al Qaeda central is not the driving force of terrorism as an operational machine but rather its ideology serves as an inspiration for self-organizing local groups to carry out their own attacks. But other experts, including Bruce Hoffman, maintain that it is established organizations like Al Qaeda that remain the dominant threat and that we must focus more on the organization and its capabilities rather than random, radicalized individuals.

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Al-Qaeda inspired groups still active in Canada

A secret government list of the country's top terrorist threats says al-Qaeda-inspired extremists remain active in Canada and are willing and able to carry out attacks. "AQ's Islamist extremist ideology continues to inspire individuals in Canada," says the classified Intelligence Assessment. "AQ-inspired groups and individuals present a threat of terrorist attack in Canada." The report indicates that, long after police arrested 18 suspects around Toronto for allegedly plotting "al-Qaeda-inspired" shootings and bombings, such extremists remain a central security concern.

Three terrorist groups are named in the report, titled "Canada: Bi-Annual Update on the Threat from Terrorists and Extremists." Dated last November, the Integrated Threat Assessment Centre report was only recently released under the Access to Information Act. Aside from al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda inspired groups, the document names Hezbollah and notes its leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to avenge last year's assassination of its military chief Imad Mugniyah. But the report says Hezbollah "has never attacked a target in Canada" and that "Hezbollah in Canada is primarily structured for fundraising."

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Toward an Intelligence-based Nuclear Cooperation Regime

Russian-American collaboration against the spread of nuclear weapons needs to extend beyond conventional threat reduction programs underway in Russia and elsewhere for the past 15 years, to include the difficult and relatively uncharted area of sharing proliferation-relevant information, some of which may be sensitive. Our intelligence services, which now devote vast resources to spying on each other, could join forces by sharing information on states and terrorist groups intent on developing nuclear weapons, including their clandestine procurement attempts. This process could include sharing and comparing open-source information, information on the probable source of nuclear materials seized in transit, or clandestinely acquired information on groups and individuals involved in nuclear trafficking.

Intelligence cooperation is vitally important, because the current nonproliferation regime is essentially reactive and containment-oriented. It is not well equipped to deal with the smuggling activities and nuclear procurement conspiracies of nation-states and terrorists. The nonproliferation treaty (NPT) and associated conventions and agreements obligate states in various ways, but of course do not bind sub-state actors or non-state entities. Besides, signatory states have been known to cheat, either maintaining covert weapons programs or helping those who do. Also, the ability of states to keep their nuclear houses in order has proved problematic in the past, especially in the aftermath of the Soviet collapse.

"Toward an Intelligence-based Nuclear Cooperation Regime", Foreign Policy Research Institute, July 2009.

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