The Ultimate Nuclear Terrorist Threat To The United States

A thought-provoking article in Forbes magazine from Larry Bell.

Any notion that achievement of nuclear capabilities by Iran, North Korea and other countries hostile to U.S. interests poses little direct danger is terribly misguided. Imagine a very plausible scenario: A relatively small and primitive 500-kiloton single-stage atomic bomb – the same type of weapon that has been in existence since the 1950s – is launched from an ordinary-looking freighter ship and exploded in the atmosphere about 300 miles above Chicago.

The resulting electromagnetic pulse (EMP) will release a burst of charged particles powerful enough to overwhelm all systems or circuits that draw or transmit electricity over a large distance, literally blowing them out or frying them from the inside. This includes orbiting satellites used for missile tracking, ground-based GPS, and general communications. The launching ship is then sunk, leaving no firm evidence about who sponsored the attack, or against whom a counterstrike is warranted.

Many highly informed sources, including former speaker of the U.S. House Newt Gingrich,  believe the potential for an EMP attack is perhaps our most serious national security threat… one with catastrophic consequences for virtually all aspects of life. Try to picture the disastrous effects of U.S. power grid disruptions that shut down all water pumping and sanitation stations; lights and refrigerators; TV, radio and Internet communications; and manufacturing industries.

Consider that all equipment that relies upon complex electronic micro-circuitry would cease to function, including banking transactions, air traffic control operations, aircraft and ground transportation vehicles, gasoline pumps, and tiny implanted medical devices. Think about those who live in cold climates without heat, contemplate mob pandemonium without essentials to support law enforcement.

Recovery would be expected to require many years. Obtaining and replacing the vast network of power grid transformers destroyed en masse would be a huge, time-consuming task. And while some vital information contained on computer hard drives would be salvageable, the costs would be enormous.

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Bending Intelligence to Political Purposes

Intelligence, it is commonly said, is inherently fallible. And the conventional wisdom is that people tend to see the world as they expect to see it and so are slow to change their minds.

If that is true, policymakers' decisions based on such intelligence analysis and mind-set should be executed carefully. There is nowhere that is more crucial than on the Korean peninsula. Their overall judgments also must be speedy, accurate and taken with great care, especially in assessing an undercurrent of the soon-to-be-declared power shift in North Korea. Far too often, the deepest and most authoritative country analysis is colored by the administration in power in the South.

Ten years or so ago, for instance, some North Korea analysts at government-financed institutes in the South proudly enjoyed likening the North to "a ship on fire in mid-ocean with a hold full of ammunition." A handful of then-senior colleagues at Korea's Blue House joined their top decision-maker who allegedly claimed in a telephone conversation with his counterpart at the Clinton White House that the North would collapse within six to 24 months.

Of course, it's not sure whether their assenting opinions were deliberately made to support official policy under the conservative Kim Young-sam government. But other pessimistic Korea watchers imagined that if the power succession should fail to proceed, millions of people would likely abandon their homes and move in hordes across the countryside, hastening to the northwest side of the Chinese frontier to search for a better life. The roads would be crammed with hungry refugees, people clinging onto the steps of the trains or crowded upon their roofs.

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North Korean sub likely sank South Korean warship

Experts say North Korea's submarine fleet is technologically backward, prone to sinking or running aground, and all but useless outside its own coastal waters. And yet many are asking: Could it have been responsible for the explosion that sank a South Korean warship in March? And if so, how could a sub have slipped through the defenses of South Korea, which, with significant American backing, maintains a fleet far more sophisticated than its northern neighbor's? Evidence collected thus far indicates a torpedo hit the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors, and suspicion is growing that it was launched from a small North Korean submarine. That scenario would make it the most serious attack on the South Korean military since the peninsula's war ended in a truce in 1953.

"While the North Korean submarine force reflects dated technology by Western standards, North Korean submarines during wartime would present significant challenges, particularly in coastal areas," according to the Arlington, Virginia-based Global Security think tank. "North Korea has placed high priority on submarine construction programs, which are ongoing despite its economic hardships." Without witnesses or communications traffic to use as evidence, proving North Korea was behind the attack is difficult.

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